To Be The Greatest, Jayson Tatum Is Having To Beat The Greatest

To Be The Best, Jayson Tatum Is Having To Beat The Best

Being nearly one of the best participant within the NBA is a far cry from being one of the best. Simply ask Jayson Tatum. 

After toppling Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets within the first spherical of the NBAplayoffs, Tatum and his Boston Celtics presently path 0-1 in a second-round collection in opposition to Giannis Antetokounmpo and the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. Although Tatum outplayed Durant within the first spherical, he couldn’t outmaneuver Antetokounmpo, who confirmed why he’s the reigning Finals MVP with a dominant efficiency within the first recreation of the Bucks-Celtics matchup. 

In fact, video games between NBA groups aren’t reducible to matchups between superstars, however Tatum’s performances in opposition to Durant and Antetokounmpo in some ways symbolize the successes and struggles of his group. The climb up the rungs of the celebrity ladder is fraught with growing and numerous challenges, as Tatum and the Celtics know all too nicely.

The primary-round collection wasn’t the primary time Tatum confronted Durant within the playoffs. In 2021, the Nets topped the Celtics in 5 video games, however Boston’s lone win got here on Might 28 when Tatum scored 50 factors, nonetheless his playoff profession excessive. However how he guarded Durant this time round — and the way he shot with Durant guarding him — was arguably what tipped the scales between the 2 groups.

After they confronted off, Tatum bested Durant this time

Pictures per 100 possessions and the quantified Shot High quality(qSQ) and efficient field-goal share (eFG%) on these photographs taken by Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant of their 2021 and 2022 playoff collection when guarded by the opposite

Pictures per 100 QSQ eFG%
2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
Jayson Tatum 10.443 7.237 40.94 46.61 42.42% 47.73%
Kevin Durant 8.682 5.333 39.89 38.43 51.85 21.88

Per 100 matchups of Durant guarding Tatum, the Celtics scored greater than 4 factors larger this yr than in 2021. Per 100 matchups of Tatum guarding Durant, the Nets scored greater than 50 factors fewer this yr. 

Tatum was an MVP-caliber participant in 2021-22, ending the common season with the second-highest RAPTOR WAR, greater than doubling his output from final yr. That’s regardless of nearly no change in his offensive method. 

He’s all the time been a tough-shot maker, with neither his anticipated nor precise efficient field-goal share shifting dramatically previously three seasons. His main field rating averages nearly ossified from 2020-21 to 2021-22. Per Cleansing the Glass, he’s taking fewer midrange photographs and shifting these each to the rim and behind the arc, however the adjustments in frequency aren’t stark — just a few share factors every approach. His accuracy from all three areas is virtually unchanged. Per Second Spectrum, his frequency and effectivity within the decide and roll and isolation additionally haven’t budged by a lot from final yr. 

The change has been on the defensive finish, the place Tatum has improved dramatically. This season, he defended extra photographs per 100 possessions and compelled a better share of misses from these appears, per Second Spectrum. He has defended nearly each motion higher, permitting fewer factors per probability whether or not defending decide and rolls, isolations or handoffs. Final season, for the primary time in his profession, the Celtics had been higher defensively with Tatum on the bench. This yr, he had one of the best on/off defensive score per 100 possessions on the Celtics — a group that features Defensive Participant of the Yr Marcus Good.

That defensive efficiency carried over to the primary spherical. But after a number of seasons of remarkably constant offense, it was Tatum’s offensive efficiency that modified in opposition to the Nets. Not like the tendency of most NBA stars, he really averaged fewer photographs per recreation within the first spherical than he did within the common season. His assists skyrocketed from 4.4 per recreation to 7.3 in opposition to Brooklyn, which marked the second-largest leap from the common season to the primary spherical amongst gamers who common 20 or extra minutes per recreation.

Tatum leveled up his assists within the first spherical

Gamers with a minimum of 1.0 extra assists per recreation within the first spherical of the 2022 NBA playoffs than the common season, amongst those that performed 20 minutes per recreation in each

Assists per recreation
Participant Crew First spherical Common season Diff.
Ja Morant Grizzlies 10.5 6.7 +3.8
Jayson Tatum Celtics 7.3 4.4 +2.9
Zach LaVine Bulls 6.0 4.5 +1.5
Jordan Poole Warriors 5.4 4.0 +1.4
Deandre Ayton Suns 2.5 1.4 +1.1
Gabe Vincent Warmth 4.2 3.1 +1.1
Kevin Huerter Hawks 3.8 2.7 +1.1
Marcus Good Celtics 7.0 5.9 +1.1
Reggie Bullock Mavericks 2.2 1.2 +1.0
Monte Morris Nuggets 5.4 4.4 +1.0

The means by which Tatum collected his elevated assists within the first spherical is telling. Although he averaged solely 2.3 additional passes per recreation, he averaged 5.1 extra potential assists. His passes turned extra harmful, extra predicated on benefit creation than resetting the play; per Second Spectrum, his cross sorts that noticed the most important improve in help fee had been interior-focused “kickout” and “attacking” passes, whereas his “perimeter” passes, really noticed a decrease help fee within the first spherical. The Celtics scored extra effectively when he handed relatively than shot.

Within the first recreation of the second spherical, Tatum continued his method. He even elevated his fee of passing, throwing essentially the most in any of his video games but within the playoffs. He threw six “kickout” passes within the first quarter, which tied for Tatum’s most in a primary quarter all season. Although he had 16 potential assists, he ended up with solely six precise assists due to some chilly taking pictures from his teammates.

He wasn’t exempt there, taking pictures 33.3 p.c from the sector — equivalent to Boston’s total mark.

” data-footnote-id=”1″ href=”http://fivethirtyeight.com/#fn-1″>1 On the identical time, the star-on-star matchup was muted all through the sport; Tatum guarded Antetokounmpo on solely 5 possessions, and Giannis didn’t shoot on any of them. Antetokounmpo was Tatum’s main defender solely as soon as, per Second Spectrum.

Antetokounmpo represents a unique kind of problem from Durant. He’s extra bodily, taking 11 photographs on the rim in Sport 1 whereas Durant took seven in his whole collection. And Giannis is flanked by a far bigger group than the Nets. In consequence, Tatum struggled within the paint, taking pictures 2-for-7 inside 5 ft in opposition to Milwaukee after averaging 3.3 makes in 7 photographs on the rim per recreation in opposition to Brooklyn. A few of that was variance in taking pictures — Tatum recorded his highest certified Shot High quality in these playoffs in Sport 1 in opposition to the Bucks, suggesting he missed some photographs he would usually make.

Although Antetokounmpo didn’t spend a lot time as Tatum’s main defender, he blocked two of Tatum’s layup makes an attempt because the helper coming from the nook. It appears each coaches are saving their stars as the first defender on the opposing star as a potential adjustment. Which implies in future video games, Tatum might should spend extra time attempting to maintain Antetokounmpo out of the paint whereas the previous Defensive Participant of the Yr guards him. Tatum thrived within the first spherical whereas buying and selling jumpers with Durant. In opposition to Antetokounmpo, the sport would possibly develop into extra paint-oriented for Boston’s celebrity. 

Tatum is studying that even after you overcome one celebrity, you might need to vary your recreation dramatically to take down the following. That’s life while you’re attempting to be one of the best — you need to beat one of the best, irrespective of how they play. 

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Louis Zatzman is a contract author residing in Toronto. He’s a workers author at Raptors Republic, a contract contributor to CBC Sports activities and Sportsnet, and co-host of the weekly e-newsletter Minute Basketball. @LouisZatzman


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